One A380 = 31.5m Austro-Daimler Superleichts

Frame and Wheel has an old friend who is a pilot and a cyclist. Inevitably, our conversations revolve around two of Frame and Wheel's favorite topics: bicycles and aircraft. The more alarming topic is the use of carbon fiber in aircraft. The pilot admits that he is a firm believer in aluminum and rivets, and Frame and Wheel agrees although the allure of flying on an A380 on the next visit to Asia is strong. 

Frame and Wheel has noted the increased chatter about how the increased use of carbon fiber by the aerospace industry is having supply constraints on the bicycle industry. The most notable quote comes from Edward Koh, a manager at Martec who said "A single Airbus A380 superjumbo jet will use some 70,000 metric tons of carbon fiber, while the entire sporting goods industry consumes about 200,000 tons a year, Koh said. “We’re talking about three Airbuses,” he said. “And they have 150 on order.” Mr. Koh made this statement in 2006 and carbon fiber suppliers may have increased their capacity since then, but the anxiety remains. Frame and Wheel points out that carbon fiber will increasingly be used by the automotive industry and once that takes hold, carbon fiber supply might get squeezed again. 

A recent article in Bicycle Retailer and Industry News titled Carbon Conundrum describes how efforts to recycle carbon are still lagging, and notes the increased use of carbon fiber by the aerospace industry (the elusive Boeing 787 uses 40,000 tons of carbon fiber and the A380, contrary to Mr. Koh's assertions, uses 55,000 tons. that's about 31.5m Austro-Daimler Superleichts framesets). Frame and Wheel explored this topic last year and learned from the Advanced Structure and Composites Center that the volumes from the bicycle industry are still too low to make recycling economical and that there is only one company doing it at the moment (Recycled Carbon Fiber) and only in the UK (although a facility for the US is on the cards). Additionally, the carbon fiber made from recycled carbon fiber would be at this point anyway of a lower quality and suitable for less rigorous functions. Regardless, an important reason to recycle carbon fiber is to do something about the tremendous amount of scrapped carbon fiber that is piling up somewhere and create another source of supply of stuff and thus keep prices of carbon fiber under control. 

These trends are what caused Frame and Wheel to start thinking about new business models for the industry. The bicycle industry imports 70% of its materials from China and uses a large amount of carbon fiber. This makes the industry vulnerable to a shock in the form of oil prices, trade embargoes and carbon fiber shortages to name a few. Meanwhile, carbon fiber frames can last up to six years, but the planned obsolescence characteristic of the industry encourages consumers to sell their frames and buy the next latest thing. Add to that the fact that the way the industry derives economies of scale is by operating huge production runs and it is no wonder that carbon fiber frames are piling up somewhere.