The Internet of Bikes: Cape Loop

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Frame and Wheel emerged into a calm day with temperatures in the mid 40s and set out for a light ride to the Prout's Neck turnaround. The ride lasted 97 minutes and covered about 28 miles. During this time Frame and Wheel crossed paths with a team mate who was outbound and revised the route accordingly. The feature of this ride was the frequent sightings of other cyclists on the road. A fox that was determined to hit the beach at Prout's Neck was also spotted. Clearly, the weather has moderated enough to lure cyclists and wild canines alike out of their lairs. 

Average moving speed was about 18 miles per hour and maximum speed was 28 miles per hour. Total elevation gain was 1,089 feet and maximum elevation was 158 feet. According to the elevation diagram, Frame and Wheel climbed over a rise that is 158 feet above sea level at the 2.5 mile mark on the way south. This makes sense as there is a climb about that distance from the starting point. On the way back, heading north, Frame and Wheel climbed over the same rise, just from the other direction. Frame and Wheel's elevation did not reach 158 feet above sea level and in fact remained below sea level, although the contours of the climb appear correct. GPS systems appear to be good at tracking where the trip goes, but less so at capturing accurate elevation. 

The Internet of Bikes: Limington Baldwin Sebago Loop

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Frame and Wheel joined a training partner and set out for the Saddleback Hills. This loop traces the Saco River north to Limington and then heads for West Baldwin where the feature is Douglas Hill Road, a sandy road that creeps up the shoulder of Bald Mountain before dropping down to the shores of Sebago Lake. The reward is an excellent view of Mount Washington and broad vistas of the western hills, the woods and the ponds. The roads are still sandy and pretty rough, and there is still quite a bit of snow around. It is remote territory and Frame and Wheel only ventures out here with a wingman or a group. The temperatures were 35 to 38 degrees with a resolve melting westerly wind, but a warm sun and some conversation made all the difference. Ride duration was 349 minutes and total distance was 96 miles. Average moving speed was about 16 miles per hour and maximum speed was 36 miles per hour. Total elevation gain was 4,760 feet and maximum elevation was 944 feet. Maximum grade was 8%.

The Internet of Bikes: Saturday Morning Ride (SMR) Dayton Buxton Loop

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Frame and Wheel joined the Portland Velo Club Saturday Morning Ride (SMR) which attracted a large group of enthusiastic riders. The temperature was between 20-35 degrees for the duration of the ride and windy, but the roads were dry. There were some heroics at the sprints and along Shore Road, but the group stayed together for the whole ride, perhaps due to the presence of many strong riders, a tough head wind, the low temperatures and the instinctive desire to avoid suffering too much.  

Frame and Wheel added a route to Dayton and Buxton to the Saturday Morning Ride for a total ride duration of 297m and a total distance of 90 miles. Average moving speed was about 18 miles per hour and maximum speed was 35 miles per hour. Maximum elevation was 190 feet and total elevation gain was 3,724 feet. Maximum grade was 10%, perhaps on Scottow Hill Road in Scarborough. 

Frame and Wheel is yet to figure out what a minimum elevation of negative 89 feet means: Frame and Wheel did not ride into an 89 foot deep pothole or board the modern day USS Maine (a ballistic missile submarine) on this ride.  Frame and Wheel guesses that a negative or minimum grade of 7% is a measurement of a downhill, but cannot be sure. Frame and Wheel is also not so sure that the elevation readings are accurate. Frame and Wheel is reading up on how the technology works.

The Internet of Bikes: Waterboro Dayton Hollis Mitchell Hill Loop

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The Waterboro Dayton Hollis Mitchell Hill Loop pushes west on familiar roads through Dayton and Lyman to Waterboro and returns through Hollis and makes its way to Mitchell Hill for hill repeats. It is slightly longer than the Lyman loop which heads for home at that town. Total moving time was 309 minutes (including a short break at the Dayton Town Office) and a total distance of about 92 miles. Average moving speed was about 18 miles per hour and maximum speed was 36.5 miles per hour. Total elevation gain was 5,318 feet and maximum elevation was 325 feet. Maximum grade was 12%.  For some reason, the Mitchell Hill segment does not appear on the map, and the grade of 12% is different from the previous visit to this climb. Frame and Wheel was not fiddling with the phone at this point of the ride and expects that inconsistencies like this have to be a feature of the technology. The weather was favorable, but air temperatures are noticeably lower around Waterboro. There is still quite a bit of snow on the ground and there were some patches of ice.

Multisport World Expo and Conference 2011

Frame and Wheel attended the 2011 Multisport World Expo and Conference in Cambridge, Massachusetts last weekend. This was the second such event attended by Frame and Wheel this year and it was very interesting. Frame and Wheel baffled vendors and participants with a rambling and confusing elevator pitch, but at the same time made some good contacts and caught up with some friends. One IBD representative observed that public attendees were in a buying mood and were asking which bikes they should buy rather than should they buy one at all. Another vendor observed that he had sold hundreds of over stock items after sending out an email. Frame and Wheel learned that one IBD has three sales a year in order to keep inventory moving: one in the spring, one in the summer and one in the fall. Another IBD noted the difficulty of predicting market demand for bicycle frames five months in the future. There were dozens of beautiful bikes on display and keen public interest in a display of group suffering in the form of an indoor compu-trainer time trial. 

The Internet of Bikes: Limington Loop

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The Limington Loop heads west to Limington and Waterboro and returns through Scarborough. It is a new loop for Frame and Wheel although parts of the route are familiar and the general area is familiar too. The ride was 298 minutes in duration and 87 miles of distance. Average moving speed was 18 miles per hour and maximum speed was 38 miles per hour. Total elevation gain was 3,713 feet and maximum elevation was 546 feet. Maximum grade was 10%. The weather was substantially better than the previous day although the air was still cool.

The Internet of Bikes: SMR Cape Loop

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Frame and Wheel joined the Portland Velo Club Saturday Morning Ride and quickly realized that it would have been better to have remained in bed. A wet rain turned into a heavy snow that began to form ominous patches of wet snow on the roads. The wiser riders gradually abandoned the ride thinking that there was nothing to gain by pushing on and everything to lose. A soggy and cold Frame and Wheel abandoned on Prout's neck and crept home.  The ride lasted 91 minutes and covered 26 miles. Clearly the tropical temperatures of yesterday afternoon affected everyone's judgement.

The Japan disaster

Shimano reports that its Osaka factories are unaffected by the earthquake and tsunami, but notes that the impact from the nuclear accident is still not known. Frame and Wheel is not convinced that this sad and awful event will not have an impact on the bicycle industry, despite comments from public relations departments, and will not be surprised to hear about supply disruptions stemming from radiation that is spewing forth from the shattered reactors. Indeed, Frame and Wheel reads that Japanese automakers expect the impact to be greater and to last longer than previously expected and that General Motors has idled one plant in the United States because of a shortage of parts from Japan. Shimano may have its factories in Osaka, but its access to capital surely must come from Tokyo and disruptions there will likely have some kind of affect on day to day operations. Other imponderables include the impact on the supply of carbon, shipping and the possibility that consumer begin to worry that their Shimano parts are somehow contaminated. Among many other things, the terrible event underscores how utterly dependent the entire bicycle industry is on imported goods from Japan, China or Taiwan. SRAM and Campagnolo might benefit in the short term, but in the long run, the bicycle industry with its massive offshore push model infrastructure in place will remain vulnerable to shocks such as these.

The Internet of Bikes: Waterboro Hollis Loop

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The Waterboro Hollis Loop heads west and begins a rolling climb to the town of Waterboro. Frame and Wheel was tempted to add on Middle Road which ventures further into the hills, but decided against it given that there was likely to be some ice and plenty of sand on this remote climb. The route then heads north on Route 202 and then east on Route 5 and then picks up the Lyman Dayton Loop for the return through Hollis. It is a good endurance ride of reasonable duration and it does not take the rider to far out into the woods. Total moving time was 272 minutes and a distance of 82 miles. Average moving speed was 18.1 miles per hour although Frame and Wheel felt slower because of the moisture on the roads. Maximum elevation was 311 feet and total elevation gain was 3,573 feet. Maximum grade was 15% due to the return by Mitchell Road. The HTC Incredible held up fine. It is difficult to check progress while riding because of the screen. There is also a good chance that the phone is dropped if it is being checked while on the bike (not to mention the risk of simply crashing into something while fiddling with the phone). 

The Internet of Bikes: The New Gloucester Loop

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The New Gloucester Loop heads West into Scarborough, Gorham and Windham and then turns North (skirting the City of Portland traffic) into Falmouth and New Gloucester. The loop features Depot Road (a 13% grade climb), Route 231 North (rolling hills and smooth roads) and New Gloucester Hill Road, another steep climb (which goes by Opportunity Farm) and the turn round point for the loop. This ride was a total of 340 minutes or 99 miles. Average moving speed was 17 miles per hour and maximum speed was 32 miles per hour. Maximum elevation was 430 feet and total elevation was 5,059 feet. Maximum grade was 13%. Frame and Wheel notes that the HTC Incredible lasted the entire ride on the charge, and had enough juice for an outgoing call. The temperatures were in the 40s and there was some ice around at the start. Frame and Wheel did not see another cyclist.

The Internet of Bikes: Lyman Dayton Loop

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The Lyman Dayton loop reaches out into the western foothills and features a inbound track that brings Frame and Wheel to Mitchell Hill Road, a short but very steep road that is ideal for hill repeats. This ride was a total of 265 minutes and 79 miles in length. Average moving speed was 18 miles per hour and maximum speed was 35 miles per hour. Elevation gain was 4,000 feet and maximum elevation was 195 feet. Maximum grade was 14.6%, which has to be the last 100 feet of Mitchell Hill Road. Frame and Wheel notes that the HTC Incredible was on Airplane Mode for the ride. This saves batteries, and resulted in the device enduring the ride with plenty of charge to spare. However, this also means that Frame and Wheel cannot be reached on the phone.

The Internet of Bikes: Weekend Rides

Frame and Wheel fit in two rides this weekend and used an HTC Incredible to track the rides. The batteries ran low on the first ride because the phone was also activated. The second ride did not have this problem, but Frame and Wheel flatted again, the second flat in three rides, due to a piece of glass.

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Total moving time was two hours and fifteen minutes or 135 minutes. Total distance was 39 miles. Maximum speed was 28 miles per hour and maximum elevation was 120 feet. Total elevation gain was 2,271 feet and maximum grade was 12%. Please see the link at he foot of the map for more details.

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Total moving time was 94 minutes and total distance was 29 miles.  Maximum speed was 28 miles per hour and maximum elevation was 62 feet. Total elevation gain was 1,311 feet and maximum grade was 10%. Please see the link for more details.

The key number for Frame and Wheel is the actual number of minutes spent riding the bike. Frame and Wheel is not thinking in terms of training hours or minutes, but in terms of usage minutes or minutes during which the bicycle is being depreciated by the rider. Frame and Wheel will continue master the details of riding with the Android while working on a method that will allow Frame and Wheel to calculate the "cost" of each ride.

A-D SLC artwork

Frame and Wheel narrowed the artwork selections for the A-D SLC down to eight. This artwork includes a white panel on the down tube with black lettering, white lettering on the chain stays and seat stays and top tube, and a white panel with the logo on the seat tube. Frame and Wheel worked out the Pantone color codes. 

Downeast Bicycle Specialist Open House

Frame and Wheel attended the Downeast Bicycle Specialists open house in Fryeburg, Maine on Sunday. Frame and Wheel had the opportunity to meet representatives from manufacturers including Shimano, SRAM, Michelin, DeFeet, Park Tools and many others. Frame  and Wheel also met mechanics and bike shop owners. This was the first time Frame and Wheel attended such an event. It was great fun.

There was a Di2 component group on display that Frame and Wheel inspected with great interest. The Shimano mechanics were very helpful and had some good ideas on how to solve the elusive front derailleur tab problem. Frame and Wheel hopped onto a Di2 equipped Felt and found the shifting to be very satisfying, particularly for the left hand, which has lost some of its strength over the years. The group retails for $3,800 according to Shimano representatives, but has been quoted to Frame and Wheel at as much a $4,200 from retailers. 

Just across the hallway was SRAM Red Black, the newest offering from SRAM, was on display. Frame and Wheel likes the glossy black look of the components, but has never tried out the group. Frame and Wheel was informed of the benefits of SRAM by the representatives, which include among other things, a lower price, a lower weight and a more simple design. Frame and Wheel notes that half of its viewers would like to see SRAM on their bikes.

Frame and Wheel had lunch with a regional bike shop owner who pointed out that trying to compete with the big manufacturers at the $2,000 price point (for a whole bike) was going to be very difficult. He also noted that targeting markets that were under served by the big manufacturers was a smart idea. Frame and Wheel made some good contacts and looks forward to attending these events in the future, hopefully as a vendor.

The Internet of the Saturday Morning Ride

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Frame and Wheel joined the Portland Velo Club's first Saturday Morning Ride of 2011. The temperature was 35-40 degrees and raining. There were about a dozen to twenty participants.  Frame and Wheel flatted within the first mile, but replaced the tire and rejoined the group. Towards the end of the ride, Frame and Wheel was very cold.

The ride covered a distance of 48 miles in a total moving time of 2 hours and 48 minutes. Average moving speed was 17 miles per hour and maximum speed was 31 miles per hour. Total elevation gain was 2,312 feet. Frame and Wheel points out that the point of this exercise is to zero in on how many minutes are spent pedaling the bicycle. The answer is 168 minutes.

The Internet of Bikes

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Frame and Wheel finally figured out how to upload a map from My Tracks on the an Android Phone to the Internet. This took months of passive and active effort. This  map shows a recent cross country ski trip. Frame and Wheel struggled along for 4.5 miles in about 1 one hour and fifteen minutes. Clicking on the link called View provides the viewer with much data, including elevation, speed, minutes, etc.

The polls

The reality of rising prices for carbon fiber as a result of rising oil prices, rising labor costs in China and demand for carbon fiber from the aerospace and car industry is one of the reasons Frame and Wheel began theorizing about new business models for the company. Frame and Wheel has also noted and been fascinated with the rapid rise of sensors and mobile smart phones and has tried to identify how these clever things could be used to develop a new business model for the industry. The ultimate objective is to develop a business model that replaces existing costs for the IBD with new revenue streams and simultaneously makes high performance road racing bicycles more affordable to the consumer. Frame and Wheel is not sure that this even possible, but if it is, Frame and Wheel is pretty sure that it will involve mobile technology, applications and a willingness on the part of consumers and IBDs to try something new. Frame and Wheel posted the questions below on the blog to explore the appetite for these ideas, and over time, some viewers have responded. Frame and Wheel will elaborate on the ideas behind the questions in broad terms.

Question	Yes	No	Maybe	Please elaborate	Total votes
Would you consider paying for your bike the same way you pay for Netflix	0	1	0	2	3
Would you pay for your bicycle based on the number of hours you used it?	0	3	0	0	3
Would you consider leasing your frame over two years?	1	4	4	0	9
Would you consider ordering your frame six months in advance?	7	2	2	0	11

The idea of paying for your bike like a Netflix subscription received one No and two Please Elaborate responses. This suggests that the market is not interested, but curious. The question about hours of use received a flat out No from all viewers. This suggests that no one wants to think about their bike as a cell phone, or that they do not want to pay extra for the long rides or perhaps the idea is just too complicated to absorb. The question about leasing a frame over two years received one Yes, four Nos and four Maybes. Frame and Wheel is surprised to see four Maybes and one Yes given that a lease implies debt, and debt implies credit checks and more leverage. Frame and Wheel suspects that it is the idea of being able to turn over your frame every two years to get the newer version one is driving the Maybes. Finally, the question about ordering frames six months in advance received seven Yes, two No and two Maybe votes. Clearly, there are many cyclists who are prepared to wait to get what they want and to get it right.

One A380 = 31.5m Austro-Daimler Superleichts

Frame and Wheel has an old friend who is a pilot and a cyclist. Inevitably, our conversations revolve around two of Frame and Wheel's favorite topics: bicycles and aircraft. The more alarming topic is the use of carbon fiber in aircraft. The pilot admits that he is a firm believer in aluminum and rivets, and Frame and Wheel agrees although the allure of flying on an A380 on the next visit to Asia is strong. 

Frame and Wheel has noted the increased chatter about how the increased use of carbon fiber by the aerospace industry is having supply constraints on the bicycle industry. The most notable quote comes from Edward Koh, a manager at Martec who said "A single Airbus A380 superjumbo jet will use some 70,000 metric tons of carbon fiber, while the entire sporting goods industry consumes about 200,000 tons a year, Koh said. “We’re talking about three Airbuses,” he said. “And they have 150 on order.” Mr. Koh made this statement in 2006 and carbon fiber suppliers may have increased their capacity since then, but the anxiety remains. Frame and Wheel points out that carbon fiber will increasingly be used by the automotive industry and once that takes hold, carbon fiber supply might get squeezed again. 

A recent article in Bicycle Retailer and Industry News titled Carbon Conundrum describes how efforts to recycle carbon are still lagging, and notes the increased use of carbon fiber by the aerospace industry (the elusive Boeing 787 uses 40,000 tons of carbon fiber and the A380, contrary to Mr. Koh's assertions, uses 55,000 tons. that's about 31.5m Austro-Daimler Superleichts framesets). Frame and Wheel explored this topic last year and learned from the Advanced Structure and Composites Center that the volumes from the bicycle industry are still too low to make recycling economical and that there is only one company doing it at the moment (Recycled Carbon Fiber) and only in the UK (although a facility for the US is on the cards). Additionally, the carbon fiber made from recycled carbon fiber would be at this point anyway of a lower quality and suitable for less rigorous functions. Regardless, an important reason to recycle carbon fiber is to do something about the tremendous amount of scrapped carbon fiber that is piling up somewhere and create another source of supply of stuff and thus keep prices of carbon fiber under control. 

These trends are what caused Frame and Wheel to start thinking about new business models for the industry. The bicycle industry imports 70% of its materials from China and uses a large amount of carbon fiber. This makes the industry vulnerable to a shock in the form of oil prices, trade embargoes and carbon fiber shortages to name a few. Meanwhile, carbon fiber frames can last up to six years, but the planned obsolescence characteristic of the industry encourages consumers to sell their frames and buy the next latest thing. Add to that the fact that the way the industry derives economies of scale is by operating huge production runs and it is no wonder that carbon fiber frames are piling up somewhere.

Rising costs of carbon frames

Frame and Wheel posted a while ago about rising labor costs in China. This post referred to an article in the New York Times that described how workers in factories in China were increasingly in short supply and thus able to demand and receive higher wages. Frame and Wheel in conversation with suppliers in Asia was told that carbon fiber prices are on the way up in 2011 for this very reason. The explanation is that workers can find other jobs outside of factories or jobs in their home towns, which has created a supply shortage of labor in some of the manufacturing centers of China. Frame and Wheel notes that a strengthening Chinese currency against the US dollar and surging oil prices will drive up the prices of carbon fiber as well.

Item	2010 price	2011 price	% change in price
Frame	500	570.00	14
Fork	100	110.00	10
Headset	15	15.60	4
Expander	5	5.40	7
Total	620	701	13

Frame and Wheel was informed by its supplier of the following price increases for frame sets and related components. The price of a carbon fiber road frame and fork with headset and expander has increased about 13% to about $700. This increase is traditionally passed on to the bike brand, and from there passed on to the retailer who then passes it on to the customer. Some participants might absorb the price increases, but not much of it. Note that the largest increase is to the carbon frame. This is where most of the carbon is and most of the labor. The price of the frame increased 14% to $570 for 2011.