The Japan disaster

Shimano reports that its Osaka factories are unaffected by the earthquake and tsunami, but notes that the impact from the nuclear accident is still not known. Frame and Wheel is not convinced that this sad and awful event will not have an impact on the bicycle industry, despite comments from public relations departments, and will not be surprised to hear about supply disruptions stemming from radiation that is spewing forth from the shattered reactors. Indeed, Frame and Wheel reads that Japanese automakers expect the impact to be greater and to last longer than previously expected and that General Motors has idled one plant in the United States because of a shortage of parts from Japan. Shimano may have its factories in Osaka, but its access to capital surely must come from Tokyo and disruptions there will likely have some kind of affect on day to day operations. Other imponderables include the impact on the supply of carbon, shipping and the possibility that consumer begin to worry that their Shimano parts are somehow contaminated. Among many other things, the terrible event underscores how utterly dependent the entire bicycle industry is on imported goods from Japan, China or Taiwan. SRAM and Campagnolo might benefit in the short term, but in the long run, the bicycle industry with its massive offshore push model infrastructure in place will remain vulnerable to shocks such as these.